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Block Stock Forecast: October 2026

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Research cutoff: September 24, 2026. Block had reported second-quarter 2026 results and raised its annual outlook. The listed company now trades under ticker XYZ; this page maps the old Square search intent to current company evidence without inventing a price target.

Block enters October with 25% gross-profit growth and record adjusted profitability, while the key risk is whether rapid Cash App lending and product expansion preserve credit quality and durable margins. Investors should analyze Cash App, Square and corporate adjustments separately.

The confirmed Q2 baseline

Block’s official Q2 shareholder-letter exhibit reported $3.166 billion of gross profit, up 25% year over year. GAAP operating income was $447 million, compared with $484 million a year earlier, while company-defined adjusted operating income rose 57% to $864 million.

GAAP diluted EPS was $0.15 and adjusted diluted EPS was $1.02. The adjusted operating-income margin was 27% of gross profit. These measures answer different questions; read the reconciliations and the restructuring, stock-compensation and other excluded items before treating adjusted profitability as GAAP profit.

Cash App growth and engagement

Cash App gross profit reached $1.973 billion, up 31%. Commerce Enablement volume grew 17% to $56.5 billion, while monthly transacting actives were 59 million in June. Primary Banking Actives increased 17% to 9.4 million, and inflows per transacting active rose 9%.

Those metrics show depth as well as reach, but they are not interchangeable. Active-account growth, inflows, card spending, Cash App Pay and BNPL can carry different monetization and risk profiles. Investors should track gross profit per active and retention rather than celebrate volume alone.

Lending growth and risk discipline

Cash App consumer-lending origination volume grew 59% to $18.9 billion, driven largely by Cash App Borrow, while management said risk-loss rates remained healthy. Rapid originations can deepen engagement and gross profit, but they also increase the importance of underwriting, funding, delinquencies and loss seasoning.

October analysis should compare loan growth with retained receivables, warehouse financing, provisions and charge-offs. A stable loss rate during expansion is encouraging, but later cohorts and economic conditions can change the outcome. Do not infer credit safety from one quarter.

Square and seller economics

Square gross profit grew 13% in Q2. Management said a one-time tariff reimbursement contributed about two percentage points to Square gross-profit growth, roughly offsetting the comparison against a prior-year network-remediation payment. Removing one-time items gives a cleaner view of seller demand and monetization.

Watch gross payment volume, software subscriptions, banking products, hardware economics and international expansion. Seller products can reinforce each other, but bundled growth is valuable only when acquisition cost, support expense, loss rates and retention produce attractive returns.

Raised 2026 guidance

Block raised full-year guidance to $12.51 billion of gross profit, up 21%, and $3.47 billion of adjusted operating income, equal to a 28% margin and 67% year-over-year growth. It expected adjusted diluted EPS of $4.02, up 70%.

For Q3, management guided to $3.13 billion of gross profit, $875 million of adjusted operating income and $1.02 of adjusted diluted EPS. These are forward-looking non-GAAP estimates without full GAAP equivalents because certain reconciling items are uncertain. Treat the ranges as a testable framework, not a guarantee.

Liquidity, buybacks and execution

Block ended Q2 with $8.8 billion of total liquidity, including $7.9 billion in cash, restricted cash and marketable debt securities plus $900 million available under its revolving facility. It repurchased 11.6 million Class A shares for $701 million and had $4.6 billion of authorization remaining.

Buybacks should be evaluated against purchase price, dilution, lending capital, debt and investment needs. Product announcements in AI, hardware or bitcoin may strengthen the platform, but investors should require evidence in adoption, gross profit, operating efficiency and risk-adjusted returns.

Three conditional October scenarios

Constructive: Cash App engagement and Square seller economics broaden, credit losses remain controlled and gross-profit growth converts into GAAP cash and earnings.

Mixed: adjusted profitability improves, but active growth stays modest and lending or investment costs make the underlying quality harder to judge.

Risk: credit deterioration, weaker sellers, regulatory pressure or execution costs undermine the raised outlook. Reassess from filings instead of assigning a fabricated downside percentage.

October investor checklist

  1. Use current ticker XYZ when checking disclosures.
  2. Separate Cash App and Square gross-profit growth.
  3. Compare actives, inflows and volume with monetization.
  4. Track lending originations beside credit losses and funding.
  5. Remove one-time items from Square comparisons.
  6. Reconcile GAAP and adjusted operating income.
  7. Judge buybacks against dilution, liquidity and lending needs.

Use our September Block analysis as the prior monthly baseline. The earnings-report checklist helps evaluate non-GAAP guidance and cash conversion.

Frequently asked questions

What ticker does Block use in 2026?

Block’s listed ticker is XYZ; older searches may still refer to SQ or Square.

How fast did Q2 gross profit grow?

Block reported 25% year-over-year gross-profit growth to $3.166 billion.

What is the main October risk?

The main analytical risk is that lending and product expansion outpace credit discipline or sustainable GAAP profitability.

Educational analysis only; not individualized investment, legal or tax advice. Company materials were checked September 24, 2026 and can be superseded.

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